Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 3.236625 3.834247 4.498798 5.290764 6.206989 7.231698 8.462542
2025-07-13 2.501904 3.348552 4.395000 5.774574 7.535442 9.696753 12.538046
2025-07-20 1.936618 2.878672 4.152428 5.979127 8.505821 11.847552 16.565284
2025-07-27 1.571671 2.558858 4.000598 6.220616 9.503601 14.119496 21.022808
2025-08-03 1.258317 2.226619 3.743066 6.231346 10.134318 15.922011 25.018297
2025-08-10 0.983526 1.883798 3.389575 6.010832 10.351047 17.106081 28.207620
2025-08-17 0.764716 1.580547 3.033334 5.707096 10.362934 17.939305 30.908903
2025-08-24 0.628059 1.392185 2.832869 5.620782 10.698459 19.293044 34.541215
2025-08-31 0.523956 1.241540 2.669531 5.565751 11.065022 20.716212 38.407026
2025-09-07 0.469800 1.180924 2.664803 5.799955 11.970763 23.141434 44.194327
2025-09-14 0.405378 1.082454 2.565018 5.829057 12.488443 24.920063 49.000473
2025-09-21 0.350760 0.993502 2.468135 5.845702 12.976671 26.681946 53.923539
2025-09-28 0.299884 0.903431 2.356874 5.824237 13.405232 28.412291 59.028537
2025-10-05 0.287590 0.910720 2.470874 6.315607 14.957581 32.467322 68.925561
2025-10-12 0.259736 0.868973 2.460682 6.523937 15.933989 35.481714 77.080416
2025-10-19 0.237565 0.837755 2.470645 6.780189 17.044329 38.868730 86.262853
2025-10-26 0.207276 0.773980 2.384649 6.789962 17.599946 41.158763 93.423653
2025-11-02 0.172082 0.684249 2.210955 6.550943 17.547468 42.152333 97.991342
2025-11-09 0.139863 0.593929 2.016008 6.222303 17.234633 42.542378 101.309037
2025-11-16 0.119854 0.540014 1.915295 6.128876 17.482674 44.192797 107.467901
2025-11-23 0.103674 0.494982 1.831914 6.069328 17.806736 46.041727 114.209766
2025-11-30 0.096831 0.484598 1.856032 6.322598 18.969797 49.936170 125.827986
2025-12-07 0.085997 0.454096 1.807918 6.354060 19.547235 52.493296 134.592650